Statistical Method of Predicting the Northeast Rainfall of Tamil Nadu

Statistical Method of Predicting the Northeast Rainfall of Tamil Nadu

Journal

Subject and more

  • LCC Subject Category: Environmental Sciences
  • Publisher's keywords: Monsoon Rainfall, Multiple Linear Regression, Outgoing Long Wave Radiation, Global Temperature, Sunspot Number
  • Language of fulltext: english
  • Full-text formats available: PDF

AUTHORS

    R. Samuel Selvaraj and Raajalakshmi Aditya

EDITORIAL INFORMATION

FULL TEXT

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ABSTRACT

Over the last few decades, several models have been developed, attempting the successful forecasting of rainfall in India. Before going into robust methods, it is always healthy to analyze the recorded data. This paper presents the use of statistical techniques: multiple linear regression method in modeling the rainfall prediction over Tamil Nadu. The rainfall data for a period of 110 years was obtained from Indian Meteorological department, Chennai. The other parameters used to predict the rainfall was Outgoing long wave radiation, global temperature and sunspot numbers. The percentage error estimated was 15%. Thus the Outgoing long wave radiation, global temperature and sunspot numbers can be used as firm predictors of rainfall in other techniques like artificial neural network, GCM, etc. Thus this paper aims at determining the best predictors for forecasting the Tamil Nadu rainfall using statistical method.

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