Stochastic Modelling of Annual Rainfall at Tamil Nadu

Stochastic Modelling of Annual Rainfall at Tamil Nadu


Subject and more

  • LCC Subject Category: Environmental Sciences
  • Publisher's keywords: Markov chain, frequency distribution, random number, rainfall, Prediction
  • Language of fulltext: english
  • Full-text formats available: PDF


    Tamil Selvi S., Samuel Selvaraj R.



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Rainfall is a phenomenon, which directly or indirectly affects all the sectors like agriculture, insurance, industry and other allied fields. Prediction of rainfall has remained an unsolved problem till now. One of the statistical techniques is the Markov chain used to predict precipitation on short term, at meteorological stations. This paper deals with the variations of annual rainfall in Tamil Nadu based on Markov Chain models. For this purpose, we derived annual rainfall from 1901 to 2000 and frequency distribution table is formed. To calculate the yearly rainfall variations the class interval is treated as states and transition probability matrix is formed. The uniform random states are also formed by generating uniform random number. If the future climate conditions are known with sufficient accuracy, the stochastic climate models available at present can be adapted to generate climate for the new conditions.

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