A Calculation The Grey Forecasting Method of Maize Productivity In Indonesia
Journal Title: IOSR journal of Business and Management - Year 2018, Vol 20, Issue 9
Abstract
The accuracy of forecasting is a crucial issue for decision-makers regarding planning. During the recent years, several techniques have used for forecasting in order to accurately predict the future demand. Although there are several forecasting techniques, selection of the most appropriate one is of paramount importance. The advancement of technology contributed to the improvement of maize plantation in Indonesia, and it shows increased expressively year by year and irregular cycles which bring suitable data series to accurate forecasting. This paper proposes a GM (1,1) forecasting method with time-series data to predict the maize productivity in Indonesia by this study delivers better forecasting performance. After assortment, the real data about the total production of maize in Indonesia from 1994 to 2015, then the result show the error from the actual data and the forecasting result have a positive correlation found between the actual data and the forecasting outcome from Grey forecasting method. This correlation related to previous research and study about Grey forecasting stated that with the Grey forecasting method suitable for short-term and long-term prediction.
Authors and Affiliations
Radna Nurmalina, Muhammad Ghalih
Keywords
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- EP ID EP412834
- DOI 10.9790/487X-2009038286.
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