A Comparative study on Different ANN Techniques in Wind Speed Forecasting for Generation of Electricity
Journal Title: IOSR Journals (IOSR Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering) - Year 2017, Vol 12, Issue 1
Abstract
There are several available renewable sources of energy, among which Wind Power is the one which is most uncertain in nature. This is because wind speed changes continuously with time leading to uncertainty in availability of amount of wind power generated. Hence, a short-term forecasting of wind speed will help in prior estimation of wind power generation availability for the grid and economic load dispatch.This paper present a comparative study of a Wind speed forecasting model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with three different learning algorithms. ANN is used because it is a non-linear data driven, adaptive and very powerful tool for forecasting purposes. Here an attempt is made to forecast Wind Speed using ANN with Levenberg-Marquard (LM) algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm and Bayesian Regularization (BR) algorithm and their results are compared based on their convergence speed in training period and their performance in testing period on the basis of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE).A 48 hour ahead wind speed is forecasted in this work and it is compared with the measured values using all three algorithms and the best out of the three is selected based on minimum error.
Authors and Affiliations
Ranvijay Parmar, Manish Shah, IEEE MIE MISLE, Mona Gupta Shah
Keywords
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