A Hybrid Method to Improve Forecasting Accuracy in the Case of Sanitary Materials Data
Journal Title: International Journal of Advanced Computer Science & Applications - Year 2014, Vol 5, Issue 5
Abstract
Sales forecasting is a starting point of supply chain management, and its accuracy influences business management significantly. In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, a new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by Takeyasu et.al. which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate smoothing constants. In this paper, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order non-linear function and 3rd order non-linear function is carried out to the manufacturer’s data of sanitary materials. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.
Authors and Affiliations
Daisuke Takeyasu, Hirotake Yamashita, Kazuhiro Takeyasu
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP136791
- DOI 10.14569/IJACSA.2014.050509
- Views 92
- Downloads 0
Communication Disconnection Prevention System by Bandwidth Depression-Type Traffic Measurement in a Multi-Robot Environment using an LCX Network
In this paper, we propose and develop a method for determining the transmission amount of each mobile robot connected to a network constructed with a leaky coaxial cable (LCX) by using broadcast packets. Tele-operation o...
Design of Wearable Patch Antenna for Wireless Body Area Networks
Wireless body area networks are being widely used due to the increase in the use of wireless networks and various electrical devices. A Wearable Patch antenna is used for enhancement of various applications for WBAN. In...
Wideband Wireless Access Systems Interference Robustness: Its Effect on Quality of Video Streaming
A necessary requirement incumbent on any information communication system and/or network is the capacity to transmit information with a predefined degree of accuracy in the presence of inevitable interference. The...
Improving Classification Accuracy of Heart Sound Signals Using Hierarchical MLP Network
Classification of heart sound signals to normal or their classes of disease are very important in screening and diagnosis system since various applications and devices that fulfilling this purpose are rapidly design and...
Novel ABCD Formula to Diagnose and Feature Ranking of Melanoma
A prototype of skin cancer detection system for melanoma diagnoses in early stages is very important. In this paper, a novel technique is proposed for Skin malignant growth identification based on feature parameters, col...