A nonlinear model for evaluating the impact of internally displaced persons dynamics on the level of regional socio-economic development
Journal Title: Economic Annals-XXI - Year 2018, Vol 171, Issue 5
Abstract
The consequence of the military aggression of the Russian Federation is the loss of control over part of the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The events are accompanied by the objective processes of migration of persons who were forced to leave their permanent residence and move to other regions of Ukraine or abroad. As a result, a new category of citizens who are the internally displaced persons (IDPs) has arrived in the country counting for millions of people. In such circumstances, the study of the interdependence between gross regional product (GRP) and the IDP migration is topical and reflects the ongoing social and economic processes in a big European country. As a result of the study, a two-layer neural network with an error back-propagation model that simulates the nonlinear impact of the number of internally displaced persons on the dynamics of gross regional product has been constructed. According to the number of IDPs, regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv, including Kyiv city, are among the first ten regions of Ukraine. Based on the data from the abovementioned regions, we have formed a statistical sampling in order to formulate and test the prospective economic and mathematical model. The study of mutual correlation function graphs by regions has allowed justifying the value of the time lag, which shifts an array of explanatory variables along the time axis, on average, into nine periods (three quarters). According to the results, only for Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv regions, there is a significant correlation between the studied indicators. This conclusion is substantiated in view of the fact that the number of IDPs, in the structure of which only about 23% represents the working age population, impacts the size of the gross product growth in the regions. The abovementioned regions account for 75% of the total number of internally displaced persons. The estimation of the forecast reliability, based on the 2017 data for Dnipropetrovsk region, points to the high accuracy of the developed model. The author of the article has identified specific features that accompany the processes of internal migration of the able-bodied population. In particular, based on the correlation function, the value of the time lag, which is shifted by the effect of IDP movement into a separate region, has been substantiated. The author has developed a neural network which establishes nonlinear regression dependence between the number if IDPs and the dynamics of GRP with high reliability.
Authors and Affiliations
Inna Arakelova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP536993
- DOI 10.21003/ea.V171-07
- Views 144
- Downloads 0
Digital transformation of Ukraine: challenges of theory and practice in implementation of digital quality of life
Introduction. The complexity of predicting the digitalisation processes with regard to all existing challenges and potentials of digital transformation raises the relevance of both theoretical and empirical studies relat...
Factors of the marketing macro system effecting children’s food production
The article reveals unsettled reasons of changing in the children’s food market. Various political, economic, demographic, sociological, natural, and technological forces are extensively used in the paper to examine the...
Macroeconomic growth in business valuation
The article is dedicated to an important statement, mostly neglected by the overtly finance-focused valuation practice in the present days regarding the influence of the macroeconomic conditions of the system on the busi...
Analytical assessment of the jewellery market in Ukraine
The article proposes scientific and practical recommendations aimed at deepening the analysis of the jewellery market in Ukraine and establishing its actual characteristics and tasks for perspective development.It is det...
Modelling of endogenous factors impacting the efficiency of the aggregate capital in Ukraine’s agriculture
The economic situation in the country is estimated by using both GDP indicators and the growth rates of quantitative indicators of the national economy, including capital. The article is devoted to the economic-mathemati...