A REEXAMINATION OF THE TOURISM-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS UNDER GROWTH AND TOURISM UNCERTAINTIES IN TURKEY
Journal Title: European Journal of Business and Social Sciences - Year 2014, Vol 3, Issue 8
Abstract
As a part of international trade, tourism is considered as an important source of economic growth, especially for developing countries. Tourism is one of the major sources of export for the Turkish economy since the early 1980s. In this study, the tourism-led growth hypothesis has been tested for Turkey over the period 1992:Q1 - 2014Q1, employing structural break unit root tests, cointegration analysis and VECM based Granger causality analysis, including the growth and tourism uncertainties derived from GARCH models. Basic findings of the VECM Granger causality tests support the reciprocal causal hypothesis. Also, both the volatilities of tourism receipts and economic growth are Granger causes of tourism growth and economic growth in long-run as well as in short-run.
Authors and Affiliations
İnci Oya Coşkun, Ph. D. | Corresponding Author Asst. Prof., Anadolu University Faculty of Tourism 26470 Eskisehir TURKEY ioyazicilar@anadolu.edu.tr, Mustafa Özer, Ph. D. | Prof., Anadolu University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences 26470 Eskisehir TURKEY muozer@anadolu.edu.tr
Keywords
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