A Simple Method to Forecast Future Bed Requirements: A Pragmatic Alternative to Queuing Theory
Journal Title: Journal of Advances in Medicine and Medical Research - Year 2016, Vol 18, Issue 4
Abstract
Aims: To review the current state of hospital bed planning, and to develop a simple tool to estimate short-term future bed requirements using historical bed occupancy data. Study Design: Analysis of daily bed occupancy between January 2008 and October 2015. Synthesis of trends into a method for forecasting bed numbers for each day of the year. Place and Duration of Study: Daily occupied bed statistics for King’s College University Hospital, a large London Teaching Hospital having 1,600 beds. Methodology: An eight-year time-series of daily midnight bed occupancy covering elective, emergency and transfer admissions has been used to estimate the number of beds required to deliver a delay-free hospital. Results: In this large 1,600 bed hospital it is estimated that 100 extra beds (a 6.3% increase) are required to deliver delay free admissions, i.e. no delays to admission from the emergency department or delays due to cancelled elective operations. Conclusion: The analysis reveals that far higher flexibility is required in staffing levels than is currently available. Potential strategies are discussed to address this issue.
Authors and Affiliations
Neeraj Beeknoo, Rodney P. Jones
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP340935
- DOI 10.9734/BJMMR/2016/29518
- Views 82
- Downloads 0
Influence of Flaxseed on Some Biochemical Factors, Antioxidant Activity and Expression of ABCG5 and ABCG8 Genes in the Liver of Diabetic Rat
Aims: The aim of this experiment is to study the effect of flaxseed on lipid profile, antioxidant activity and ATP-cassette binding proteins G5 and G8 (ABCG5 and G8) levels in the liver of diabetic rat. Place and Durati...
Scalp Metastasis from Thyroid Carcinoma 12 Years Post-thyroidectomy: Clinical and Ethical Lessons
Aim: We describe a rare presentation of thyroid carcinoma, to highlight thyroid carcinoma in the differential diagnosis of skin lesions; and emphasize the importance of efficient record keeping in patient management. Pre...
Prediction of Intrauterine Growth Restriction in High Pulsatility Index of Uterine Artery
Introduction: Intrauterine growth restriction is a significant cause of neonatal mortality. The uterine artery Doppler waveform becomes transformed into a high flow with low resistance at 22-24 weeks. The apt way to redu...
Psychosocial Characteristics of Subjects Who Hoped to Receive Psychotherapy as Part of a Research Study in Japan
Aims: This study examined the psychosocial characteristics of subjects who hoped to receive psychotherapy, but were not receiving psychiatric medication as part of a research study using quantitative methods to measure p...
Relationship between Emotional Intelligence and Self-Concept in Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury
The present study aims to identify different profiles in emotional intelligence (EI) and self-concept of the participants with disabilities according to functionality of spinal cord injury. In addition, significant diffe...