An agricultural price forecasting model under nonstationarity using functional coefficient autoregression
Journal Title: Journal of Applied and Natural Science - Year 2016, Vol 8, Issue 1
Abstract
In this globalized world, management of food security in the developing countries like India where agriculture is dominated needs efficient and reliable price forecasting models more than ever. Forecasts of agricultural prices are handy to the policymakers, agribusiness industries and farmers. In the present study, Functional Coefficient Autoregression (FCAR) has been applied for modeling and forecasting the monthly wholesale price of clean coffee seeds in Hyderabad coffee consuming center using the data from Jan, 2001 to Sep, 2014. FCAR (2,2) model was found suitable based on the minimum Average Prediction Error (APE) criterion. The FCAR model thus obtained was compared with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Since the original series was found to be nonstationary from Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF statistic=-2.84, p=0.22), the differenced series (ADF statistic=-4.20, p<0.01) was used and ARIMA (12,1,0) was found suitable. The FCAR model obtained was compared with the ARIMA model with respect to forecast accuracy measures viz., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The RMSE and MAPE for the FCAR (2,2) were found to be 17.16 and 4.41%, respectively, whereas for the ARIMA (12,1,0) models, 62.64 and 26.15%, respectively. The results indicated that the FCAR model was efficient than the ARIMA model in forecasting the future prices.
Authors and Affiliations
B. S. Yashavanth, K. N. Singh, Amrit Kumar Paul
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP283705
- DOI -
- Views 84
- Downloads 0
In vitro propagation of Withania somnifera (L.) Dunal. from shoot apex explants
In vitro rapid micropropagation of Withania somnifera; has been achieved using shoot apex explants, when cultured on MS medium with different auxins: Indole Butyric Acid (IBA) 0.5-4 mg/l, Indole Acetic Acid (IAA) 2 mg/l...
Histopathological changes in the gill architecture of Labeo rohita from the pond adjacent to thermal power station, Koradi, Nagpur, India
The hazardous effect of water pollution on the histopathology of selected organs of the freshwater fish Labeo rohita was studied with respect to thermal power plant effluent. The purpose of this research paper is to stud...
BNKR-1 (Dhiren) – A newly released late duration high-yielding rice variety an alternative to Swarna (MTU 7029) for West Bengal, India
BNKR – I (Dhiren), a new late duration high yielding rice variety developed at Rice Research Station, Bankura, West Bengal, India was released by “State Variety Release Committee” (SVRC), West Bengal in 2011 for cultivat...
Slip, trip and falls among women of different age groups: A case study from the northern hills of India
Slip, trip and falls continue to be significant occupational safety concern, and causes of occupational injuries and fatalities in the workplace and daily activities. This paper shows the results of a comparative study d...
Climate smart agricultural technologies in rice-wheat water stressed regions of Punjab, India- A review
Intensively cultivated rice-wheat cropping sequence of Punjab, India responsible for many sustainability issues viz. declining underground water, declining soil health, arising micro-nutrient deficiencies etc. Around 1.3...