An empirical test of domestic and international raw milk prices in the co-frequency resonance
Journal Title: Journal of Henan Agricultural University - Year 2024, Vol 58, Issue 6
Abstract
[Objective] Empirical analysis was conducted to verify the impact effect of international raw milk price fluctuations on domestic raw milk price, providing decision-making reference for China to actively respond to the risk of international raw milk price fluctuations. [Method] Based on the domestic and international raw milk price data from June 2006 to June 2023, a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is utilized to investigate the dynamic time-varying relationship between domestic and international raw milk prices, and to test the effect of international raw milk price volatility on domestic raw milk price. [Result] From the point of view of equal-interval impulse response, with the increase of the number of lag periods, the positive impact of international raw milk price on Chinese raw milk price is getting bigger and bigger. From the point-of-time impulse response, the impact of international raw milk price on domestic raw milk price in the three periods of 2007, 2013 and 2020 has differences, but the impact trend shows similarity, all presenting the peak-like characteristics and the impact lasts for a long period of time. The impact effect of the three pre-periods corresponding to the lagged period of the point-of-time impacts behaves in a similar way. [Conclusion] It is suggested that we should improve the international raw milk price monitoring and early warning system, effectively grasp the domestic milk supply guidance. It is necessary to pay attention to the reverse impact of the lag period after the short-term impact, maintain the stability of the raw milk market. We also should protect the dominant position of domestic raw milk and reduce the domestic market’s dependence on imported milk powder.
Authors and Affiliations
Chunhui MA, Hongchun MA, Qianyu HOU
Keywords
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- EP ID EP769483
- DOI 10.16445/j.cnki.1000-2340.20240401.001
- Views 2
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