An Estimation of Potential Demographic Losses in Ukraine: the Macroeconomic Approach
Journal Title: Демографія та соціальна економіка - Year 2016, Vol 3, Issue
Abstract
The macroeconomic approach is realized for the estimation of potential demographic losses of present Ukrainian population. Because the fundamental reason of social and political catastrophes connected with considerable demographic losses is a macroeconomic factor. This factor reveals itself as the national economy demographic capacity. We determined this capacity with the short term «demoeconomic niche». The indexes with which it is possible to estimate «momental» (annual) potential of diminishing the whole and in particular rural population are substantiated. Potential demographic losses (diminishing of whole population) are represented with the ratio of per capita value of aggregate whole household resources and the official minimum subsistence level, measured in 2004 $PPP taking in account inflation (CPI) and reproduction cost coefficient. Potential demographic losses of rural population – with the ratio of per capita value of aggregate rural household resources and per capita output of agrarian sector, measured in current $PPP. In accordance with calculations for whole population, in 1999–2008 there were quasi-cyclic fluctuations of the potential size of whole population losses measuring 5–6 million. Then formed a tendency of its gradual increase of whole population potential losses with its stabilization at the level of 14–15 millions, but in 2014 a sharp growth to over 20 million occurred. Dynamics of rural population potential losses is different. It diminished from a size of over 8 millions in 2000–2001 to less than 1 million in 2009. Then the tendency had changed. In 2014 the demoeconomic potential of Ukrainian rural population losses is estimated in approximately 5 million persons. The estimation of macroeconomic potential of «momental» demographic losses is only a possibility of their realization. Other factors can both prevent or facilitate them.
Authors and Affiliations
O. G. Rogozhin
Changes іn Seasonal Pattern of Birth in Ukraine in 1960–2009
Seasonality of fertility pattern has been repeatedly reported in populations of many countries. The changes in this pattern are likely associated with different environmental and socio-demographic factors. In present stu...
НОВЫЕ ФОРМЫ БЕДНОСТИ В УКРАИНЕ: ОСНОВНЫЕ ПРОЯВЛЕНИЯ И ОЦЕНКА МАСШТАБОВ ЯВЛЕНИЯ
Рассмотрены ключевые проявления бедности населения Украины, которые могут быть идентифицированы по данным 2013–2014 годов, – невозможность оплаты за лечение, неудовлетворительные жилищные условия или риск их ухудшения, к...
УДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ БЮДЖЕТНОЇ ПОЛИТИКИ – ОСНОВНА ДЕТЕРМІНАНТА РОЗВИТКУ СОЦАЛЬНОЇ ІНФРАСТРУКТУРИ
Проаналізовано досвід застосування фінансово-бюджетного механізму розвитку соціальної інфраструктури в Україні. Показано, що між областями та у їхніх межах відмічається зростання нерівності у фінансуванні медичних, освіт...
ESTIMATION OF BIG DATA POTENTIAL IN LABOUR MIGRATION RESEARCH
In recent years the number of Ukrainians working abroad has been constantly increasing making labour migration one of the topical issues. Notwithstanding, the available statistics on labour migrants derived from statisti...
Income Differentiation of Residents of Ukraine Under Conditions of Shadow Economy
The objective of the article is to study income differentiation of the population of Ukraine with consideration of its shadow components. Official data-based analysis of income differentiation indicates a moderate rate o...