An Overview of the Further Demographic Situation and Economy in 2035

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An Overview of the Further Demographic Situation and Economy in 2035

Journal Title: Історико-політичні проблеми сучасного світу - Year 2018, Vol 37, Issue

Abstract

The study of the situation in Europe and other countries in the context of demographic evolution, the forecast of economic development has shown that the population, structural migration and economies are closely correlated. The population and economy in the EU in the near future will undergo dramatic changes. In some developed, industrialized countries, the population grows slowly or stagnates, while in economically poor economies, birth rates are accelerating, and as healthcare increases, it will lead to a demographic explosion. In recent years, the EU population has grown by 507 million, with a projected increase of 5% by 2050, reaching a maximum of 526 million, after which it will decrease to 523 million in 2060 yr. In about half of the EU countries, despite the population growth trend, the total population will diminish. This trend refers to Bulgaria, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Slovakia. In total, decline of population in Eastern European countries is linked to a number of factors. First is the reduction of the socio-economic level of the population, increasing labor migration to countries with advanced living standards. In these countries, as a rule, the standard of living, social and medical assistance, social protection is reduced. At the same time, world community is going through a difficult time. A deep and prolonged recession that followed the global financial crisis has changed with the slow recovery of employment. Never in the history of mankind, the growth rate of the world population was not as large as in the second half of the 20th and early 21st century. Between 1960 and 1999, the population of the planet doubled (from 3 to 6 billion people), and in 2007 - 6.6 billion people. Although the average annual growth rate of the world's population declined from 2.2% in the early 1960s to 1.5% in the early 2000's absolute annual growth increased from 53 million to 80 million people. Demographic changes from traditional (high fertility - high mortality - low natural growth) to the modern reproductive population (low fertility - low mortality - low population growth) ended in developed countries in the first decade of the 20th century, and most of the transition economies - in middle of last century. At the same time, in the 1950s and 1960s, the demographic transition began in several countries and regions of the rest of the world and begin to the end only in Latin America, East Asia and Southeast Asia and continuing in East Asia, Africa Sub-Saharan Africa from the Sahara to the Middle East. Rapid population growth compared with the indicators of socio-economic development in these regions leads to aggravation of problems related to employment, poverty, food, land, low education and health risks.

Authors and Affiliations

Alexandru Gribincea

Keywords

EP ID EP530273
DOI 10.31861/mhpi2018.37-38.80-87
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