ANALIZA POKRETAČKIH SNAGA I OGRANIČENJA U PROGNOZAMA RAZVOJA AVIOPRIJEVOZA - DRIVING FORCES AND CONSTRAINTS ANALYSIS IN FORECASTS OF AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
Journal Title: EMC Review: Časopis za ekonomiju i tržišne komunikacije - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue 2
Abstract
Objective forecasting of the aviation development dynamics is one of the most sensitive, unpredictable and critical points in the airline management activities. Forecasts and projections of the airline industry are very complex since they include a lot of market micro-macro elements influencing future demand and supply. High depending correlation of the aviation industry with economy growth is followed by the cyclical and seasonal changes on the air transport market. It emphasize the importance of the choice of adequate forecasting method in the projections quantification. Air carriers dominantly use three groups of forecasting methods-qualitative, causal and time series projections. ICAO and IATA forecasts are the most recognized worldwide, followed by the forecasts of aircraft manufacturers. European aviation forecasts use very often Eurocontrol predictions. Croatian air transport market is not covered by the adequate passenger and cargo forecasts. The contribution to the relevant forecasting factors will be supplemented by the selective mathematics modelling. Conclusions of the paper give directions to the activities for better understanding of cohesive and synchronized image of driving forces and constraints on global and regional air transport markets. Realno predviđanje dinamike razvoja avioprijevoza jedno je od najsenzitivnijih, najnesigurnijih a time i najkritičnijih područja upravljanja aviokompanijom. Prognoze i projekcije razvoja industrije avioprijevoza, složene su discipline koje moraju uključivati široku lepezu elemenata mikro i makro okruženja, s bitnim utjecajem na buduća kretanja ponude i potražnje. Uz visok stupanj ovisnosti o stanju ekonomije industriju avioprijevoza, također, karakterizira osjetljivost na ciklične i sezonalne promjene, te različite negativne pojave u okruženju. Stoga je veoma važan odabir primjerenih prognostičkih metoda za kvantificiranje projekcija. Aviokompanije dominantno koriste tri grupe prognostičkih metoda i to kvalitativne, kauzalne, te metode projekcije vremenskih serija. Najpriznatije prognoze za industriju avioprijevoza su ICAO i IATA projekcije, kao i prognoze vodećih svjetskih proizvođača aviona. Kada se radi o europskom tržištu avioprijevoza uz navedene prognoze koriste se i projekcije Eurocontrola. Hrvatsko tržište avioprijevoza nije adekvatno pokriveno vjerodostojnim prognozama bez obzira da li se radi o putničkim ili robnim prognozama rasta. Doprinos cjelovitijoj slici i prikazu relevantnih faktora utjecaja na dinamiku budućeg rasta avioprijevoza u svijetu, upotpunjava selektirano matematičko modeliranje. Zaključci upućuju na potrebne aktivnosti kojima bi se postigla bolja kohezijska i sinergijska predodžba na spomenutim globalnim i regionalnim tržištima avioprijevoza.
Authors and Affiliations
Ivan Mišetić, Mirko Tatalović, Andrej Bajić
Keywords
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- EP ID EP247418
- DOI 10.7251/EMC1602287M
- Views 77
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