Applicability of Box Jenkins ARIMA Model in Crime Forecasting: A case study of counterfeiting in Gujarat State
Journal Title: International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Engineering & Technology(IJARCET) - Year 2012, Vol 1, Issue 4
Abstract
For any police organization, detection and prevention of crime incidents is a big challenge. Normally police organization maintains data of crime and criminals for various purposes like investigation, coordination and future strategies. The forecast made with the help of historical crime data may support law enforcement agencies in their decision making activities and tactical operations. The time series is one of the tools for making prediction and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been successfully used in forecasting econometrics, social science and many other problems. This model has the advantage of accurate forecasting over short-term. In this study, we have utilized the crime data of Gujarat State pertaining to counterfeiting of currency. We have used Box Jenkins ARIMA model for short term crime forecasting.
Authors and Affiliations
Anand Kumar Shrivastav, , Dr. Ekata, Associate Professor,
Keywords
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