Bayesian model of statistical assessment of reliability index of technical system based on results of tests with improvements
Journal Title: Технічна механіка, Техническая механика, Technical Mechanics - Year 2015, Vol 3, Issue 3
Abstract
The traditional techniques of assessments of freedom from failures based on the results of improvement tests (reliability-growth models, models that take into account the effectiveness of improvements, Bayesian Mar-kov models) for a binomial test pattern are analysed and their disadvantages are reported. In order to determine the reliability based on the results of improvement tests, the modified Bayesian approach is proposed. A special feature of the model proposed is to use as a prior information the point estimate of reliability determined by the analysis of the effectiveness of improvements and the uncertainty interval for an unknown value of a priori standard deviation. The calculated relations for a posterior evaluation of the technical system reliability and its standard deviation in the process of experimental testing considering improvements are obtained and a practical application of the proposed mathematical model is proposed. The developed mathematical model allows the consideration of the effect of improvements carried out during experimental system tests on assessments of free-dom from failures.
Authors and Affiliations
E. Gladkiy
Keywords
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