Climate Change Adaptation Considerations for Agriculture for North-East Iraq
Journal Title: Current Investigations in Agriculture and Current Research - Year 2018, Vol 2, Issue 4
Abstract
Analysis of climatic data of the last three decades reveals that there is a noticeable shift in climate and water resources regime of north-east Iraq. Analysis was done on the five major tributaries of Tigris River-Khabur, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Al-Adhiam and Diyala rivers. At first glance, the region appears to have plenty of freshwater, but due to high temporal and spatial variability combined with inadequate infrastructure, water scarcity is widespread. Agriculture is the primary user of freshwater, and therefore, any adverse effect on water availability will have far reaching consequences. For forecasting purposes, SWAT model was chosen for simulation and GCM ensembles were used for long-range forecasts. The paper explores how the population are adjusting to the shift in climate regime and what kinds of climate change adaptation measures are socio-culturally viable. The analysis framework featured separation of freshwater availability into blue and green waters, climate forecasts with a lead time of about half-a-century to 2049-2069 and about one-century to 2080-2099, and feedback from grass-root level of the government and focus groups as to how the population are adjusting and likely to adjust in the future to climate change.The north-east Iraq, which includes autonomous Kurdistan, is regarded to have adequate freshwater, but due to high spatial and temporal variability, and accessibility issues owing to lack of proper infrastructure, water scarcity is widespread in the region. Freshwater availability is of critical importance for food security, public health and environment protection in the region, but detailed information on water resources and water scarcity is very limited [1] to address these issues adequately. Adding to the complexity in addressing these issues is the need for conformity of strategies to the social and cultural norms and expectations. Nevertheless, some data exist in disperse and disparate sources, which hitherto have not been used in planning [2], but can be collated for a coherent and thorough assessment of water resources of the region. This study attempted to achieve that objective, and then, explored the implications in social-cultural context. The quantity and quality of water resources in a basin is impacted by a multitude of factors such as precipitation and other meteorological variables, vegetation and other land cover, natural calamities such as hurricanes and earthquakes, and induced catastrophes such as bushfires. Changes in the quantity and quality of water can also occur with changes in population, climate and land use with alteration in supply and demand.
Authors and Affiliations
Saleh A Wasimi, Nahlah Abbas, Nadhir Al Ansari
Keywords
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- EP ID EP570398
- DOI 10.32474/CIACR.2018.02.000143
- Views 86
- Downloads 0
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