Climate Change and Agricultural Trade in Iran: A Dynamic Input-Output Analysis
Journal Title: Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development - Year 2024, Vol 37, Issue 4
Abstract
In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. Climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. Among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. Accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in Iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. This study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of Iran’s economy. The findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. Under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. However, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. Regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent. In addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. Also, the total trade of the Iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities.
Authors and Affiliations
Alireaz Keshavarz,Zakariya Farajzadeh,
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP733777
- DOI https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2024.85467.1227
- Views 40
- Downloads 0
Investigating the Factors Influencing the Resilience Capacity of Rural Households Affected by Drought: A Case Study of the Villages of Zehak City
Introduction Considering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. Du...
Prioritizing Iran's Saffron Target Markets Based on Market Competition Indices
Exporting agricultural products is considered as one of the strategies for developing non-oil exports and achieving sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Saffron, as an export commodity, holds particular s...
Identification and Prioritization of Business Risks of Poultry Production Units
IntroductionToday, the businesses of the poultry industry are facing many challenges, because this industry has to manage a number of unique processes, methods and risks at the same time. Therefore, identifying the busin...
The Potential Effects of Developing Different Marketing Channels on Waste Reduction in the Leafy Vegetable Supply Chain in Kermanshah Province
Every year, approximately one-third of the total food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted due to various reasons. This level of wastage has substantial adverse impacts on the environment, economy, and societ...
Compilation of Sustainable Agricultural Development Scenarios in Zayandeh-Rud River Watershed- Isfahan Province of Iran
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development and rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector are of mai...