Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for Daily Cryptocurrency Price Prediction
Journal Title: Information Dynamics and Applications - Year 2024, Vol 3, Issue 1
Abstract
The decentralised nature of cryptocurrency, coupled with its potential for significant financial returns, has elevated its status as a sought-after investment opportunity on a global scale. Nonetheless, the inherent unpredictability and volatility of the cryptocurrency market present considerable challenges for investors aiming to forecast price movements and secure profitable investments. In response to this challenge, the current investigation was conducted to assess the efficacy of three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, namely, Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), and Bagging, in predicting the daily closing prices of six major cryptocurrencies, namely, Binance, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, USD, and XRP. The study utilised historical price data spanning from January 1, 2015 to January 26, 2024 for Bitcoin, from January 1, 2018 to January 26, 2024 for Ethereum and XRP, from January 1, 2021 to January 26, 2024 for Solana, and from January 1, 2019 to January 26, 2024 for USD. A novel approach was adopted wherein the lagging prices of the cryptocurrencies were employed as features for prediction, as opposed to the conventional method of using opening, high, and low prices, which are not predictive in nature. The data set was divided into a training set (80%) and a testing set (20%) for the evaluation of the algorithms. The performance of these ML algorithms was systematically compared using a suite of metrics, including R2, adjusted R2, Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The findings revealed that the GB algorithm exhibited superior performance in predicting the prices of Bitcoin and Solana, whereas the RF algorithm demonstrated greater efficacy for Ethereum, USD, and XRP. This comparative analysis underscores the relative advantages of RF over GB and Bagging algorithms in the context of cryptocurrency price prediction. The outcomes of this study not only contribute to the existing body of knowledge on the application of ML algorithms in financial markets but also provide actionable insights for investors navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market.
Authors and Affiliations
Timothy Kayode Samson
Keywords
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- EP ID EP744286
- DOI https://doi.org/10.56578/ida030105
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