Comparative Approach to the Backward Elimination and for-ward Selection Methods in Modeling the Systematic Risk Based on the ARFIMA-FIGARCH Model
Journal Title: Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications - Year 2017, Vol 2, Issue 4
Abstract
The present study aims to model systematic risk using financial and accounting variables. Accordingly, the data for 174 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange are extracted for the period of 2006 to 2016. First, the systematic risk index is estimated using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. Then, based on the research background, 35 affective financial and accounting variables are simultaneously used with the help of the backward elimination and forward selection method for modeling. After analyzing and evaluating the variables in Eviews software, the four variables of debt ratio (CL. E), size (SIZE), net profit to sales ratio (NETP. S), and interest rate coverage ratio (ICR) are selected in the backward elimination method. In the forward selection method, in addition to the above variables, operating profit margin (OPM) is also chosen. The estimated model of these variables in both methods shows a low ratio of R2 coefficient that is approximately 7%. In the test case, the model of forward selection method has less error in all four criteria of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Tile coefficient (TIC) compared to the backward elimination method.
Authors and Affiliations
Nemat Rastgoo, Hossein Panahian
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP476051
- DOI 10.22034/AMFA.2017.536263
- Views 82
- Downloads 0
Modelling and Investigating the Differences and Similarities in the Volatility of the Stocks Return in Tehran Stock Exchange Using the Hybrid Model PANEL-GARCH
Efficient financial markets with high degree of transparency do not substantiate the hypothesis that there are differences in the volatility of return. Generally, there are factors rejecting any perfect similarity in the...
Forecasting the Profitability in the Firms Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Artificial Neural Network
Profitability as the most important factor in decision-making, has always been considered by stakeholders in the company's profitability. Also can be a basis for evaluating the performance of the managers. The ability t...
Impact of the Management Performance Evaluation Methods on the Data Quality in Accounting
The impact of the management performance evaluation methods on the information quality in accounting will be studied in this paper. The information plays two roles in the market-oriented economies; first, it allows the i...
Comparative Approach to the Backward Elimination and for-ward Selection Methods in Modeling the Systematic Risk Based on the ARFIMA-FIGARCH Model
The present study aims to model systematic risk using financial and accounting variables. Accordingly, the data for 174 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange are extracted for the period of 2006 to 2016. First, the systemat...
The Study of the Effect of Diversification Strategy, Cost Leader-ship Strategies and Product Differentiation on Business Unit Value
Changes in credit risk may arise when either the value or the risk of corporate assets changes. Changes in the equity value associated with the changes in the asset value and changes in asset risk can be characterized in...