Complexification methods of interval forecast estimates in the problems on shortterm prediction
Journal Title: Восточно-Европейский журнал передовых технологий - Year 2018, Vol 3, Issue 3
Abstract
<p>We solved the problem of improvement of methodological base for a decision support system in the process of short-term prediction of indicators of organizational-technical systems by developing new, and adapting existing, methods of complexification that are capable of taking into consideration the interval uncertainty of expert forecast estimates. The relevance of this problem stems from the need to take into consideration the uncertainty of primary information, predetermined by the manifestation of NON-factors. Analysis of the prerequisites and characteristics of formalization of uncertainty of primary data in the interval form was performed, the merits of interval analysis for solving the problems of complexification of interval forecast estimates were identified. Brief information about the basic mathematical apparatus was given: interval arithmetic and interval analysis. The methods of complexification of forecast estimates were improved through the synthesis of interval extensions, obtained in accordance with the paradigm of an interval analysis. We found in the course of the study that the introduction of the analytical preference function made it possible to synthesize the model of complexification in a general way, by aggregating the classes of hybrid and selective models in a single form for the generation of consolidated predictions based on interval forecast estimates. This allows obtaining complexification predictions based on the interval forecast estimates, thereby ensuring accuracy of the consolidated short-term prediction.</p><p>Critical analysis of the proposed methods was performed and recommendations on their practical application were developed. Recommendations for parametric setting of the analytic function of preferences were stated. Using the example, the adaptive properties of the interval model of complexification were shown.</p>
Authors and Affiliations
Yuri Romanenkov, Mariia Danova, Valentyna Kashcheyeva, Oleg Bugaienko, Maksym Volk, Maryna Karminska-Bielobrova, Olena Lobach
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP527970
- DOI 10.15587/1729-4061.2018.131939
- Views 81
- Downloads 0
Study into formation of nutritional value of cauliflower depending on the agribiological factors
<p class="a">We studied the effect of the sum of active temperatures above 10 °C, the amount of precipitation, and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), on the formation of dry, dry soluble substances, sugars, and ascorbic...
Development of the procedure for simulation modeling of interrelated transport processes on the main road network
<p>The article deals with the interrelated processes of cargo transportation on the main road transport network. The problem of distribution of available vehicles was stated. The flows of incoming orders are stochastic,...
Effect of the cryopowder "Amaranth" on the technology of meolten cheese
<p>The expediency of using the cryopowder "Amaranth" in the technology of molten cheese is substantiated. The cryopowder "Amaranth" contains necessary vitamins and microelements of natural origin. Applying the cryopowder...
Development of the method of distances for processing expert estimates in information systems
<p>Current research focuses on expert estimation of indicators by employing a limited number of qualified experts, which involves considerable time and cost. The advent of modern information technology allows rapid and e...
Development of formulations for sponge cakes made from organic raw materials using the principles of a food products safety management system
<p>To control the safety of sponge cakes made from organic raw materials in line with the HACCP principles, we have developed two sample sponge cakes "Winter delight" and "Exotic". To make the semi-finished sponge cake "...