Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2019, Vol 14, Issue 6
Abstract
Recent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated under comparable conditions (low-probability, inaccurate forecasts), but it was reversed for low-probability accurate forecasts and eliminated for high-probability forecasts. Experiment 2 further showed that verbal probabilities convey implicit recommendations more clearly than probability information, whereas numeric probabilities do the opposite. Descriptively, the findings indicate that the effect of probability words versus numbers on credibility depends on how these formats convey directionality differently, how directionality implies recommendations even when none are explicitly given, and how such recommendations correspond with outcomes. Prescriptively, we propose that experts distinguish forecasts from advice, using numeric probabilities for the former and well-reasoned arguments for the latter.
Authors and Affiliations
Robert N. Collins and David R. Mandel
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP678449
- DOI -
- Views 134
- Downloads 0
Finding meaning in the clouds: Illusory pattern perception predicts receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit
Previous research has demonstrated a link between illusory pattern perception and various irrational beliefs. On this basis, we hypothesized that participants who displayed greater degrees of illusory pattern perception...
Modeling and debiasing resource saving judgments
Svenson (2011) showed that choices of one of two alternative productivity increases to save production resources (e.g., man-months) were biased. Judgments of resource savings following a speed increase from a low product...
Success-slope effects on the illusion of control and on remembered success-frequency
The illusion of control refers to the inference of action-outcome contingency in situations where outcomes are in fact random. The strength of this illusion has been found to be affected by whether the frequency of succe...
Change and status quo in decisions with defaults: The effect of incidental emotions depends on the type of default
Affective states can change how people react to measures aimed at influencing their decisions such as providing a default option. Previous research has shown that when defaults maintain the status quo positive mood incre...
Cognition in the woods: Biases in probability judgments by search and rescue planners
A type of emergency decision-making which has not received research attention is the police search for a lost person in a rural or wilderness area. For many such incidents, decisions concerning where to search for the lo...