Cyclicality of Economic Development of Ukraine in the Context of its Political and Legal Transformations
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2016, Vol 2016, Issue 2
Abstract
The cyclicality in the development of the Ukrainian economy during the years of its independence under conditions of its political and legal transformations has been studied. On the basis of the analysis of worldwide research the problem of influence of political transformations on the socio-economic development of the state has been identified. There has been developed a methodological approach to studying the evolutionary development of the Ukrainian economy in the context of its European integration, which comprises three main blocks: Block 1 — studying the development of the legal field of Ukraine; Block 2 — studying the policy of development of Ukraine and orientation of its economic system; Block 3 — analyzing the evolutionary development of the Ukrainian economy and determining its cyclical nature. Within the developed approach there were used wavelet models, spectral analysis — Fourier expansion and Johanson test. The paper puts forward three hypotheses: hypothesis 1 — about the existence of short-term 5-year cycles of evolutionary development of the economy; hypothesis 2 — about the existence of a long-term cycle lasing 25 years and conditioned by political and legal processes in the society; hypothesis 3 — about the existence of cointegration relationships between the evolutionary development of the economy of Ukraine and the EU. On the basis of the modern political transformations the phases of development of the Ukrainian legal environment have been defined and comparison of these phases with the specifics of its economic development has been carried out. The analysis of the economic system of Ukraine and its policy made it possible to determine the vector of development of the Ukrainian economy. The approximating (trend) and detailing (cyclic) components of the economic development of Ukraine were determined with the help of wavelet expansion. Using Fourier analysis for the detailing components allowed to distinguish 5-year cycles in the Ukrainian economy, which proved the first hypothesis.
Authors and Affiliations
Kostyantyn Stryzhychenko
Keywords
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