DALGALANMA SONRASI TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN PORTFÖY AKIMLARININ MODELLENMESİ

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DALGALANMA SONRASI TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN PORTFÖY AKIMLARININ MODELLENMESİ

Journal Title: İzmir İktisat Dergisi - Year 2008, Vol 23, Issue 1

Abstract

In this paper, a structurally identified vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed to examine the determinants of the portfolio-based capital flows for the Turkish economy. Our estimation results using data from the post-floating period reveal that the “push” factors based on the external developments for the Turkish economy have a dominant role to explain the behavior of the portfolio flows. Furthermore, the domestic real interest rates as a main “pull” factor are found in a negative dynamic relationship with the portfolio flows and such a finding is attributed to that the dynamic course of the portfolio flows should not be related to the excess return possibilities of the real interest structure, but rather they shold be related to the risk considerations of the economic agents, resulted from the negative fundamentals of the economy associated with high risk premiums.

Authors and Affiliations

CEM SAATÇİOĞLU, LEVENT KORAP

Keywords

Portfolio Flows SVAR Analysis Turkish Economy

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EP ID EP466017
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