Abstract

Two different approaches are applied for the investigation of possible changes within the climate regime – as an important component of vulnerability – on a regional scale for Saxony, Germany. Therefore data were applied from the output of the statistical climate models WETTREG2010 and WEREX-V for a projected period until 2100. In the first step, rain gauge-based precipitation regions with similar statistics have been classified. The results show that stable regions are mainly located in the Ore Mountains, while regions of higher uncertainty in terms of a climate signal exist particularly between the lowlands and mountains. In the second step, station-based data on precipitation, temperature and climatic water balance were interpolated by the regionalisation service RaKliDa. Model runs which lay closest to the observed data for the period 1968 to 2007 were identified. Therefore, regions of similar climates were classified and compared by means of a Taylor diagram. The derived patterns of the observed data are in good agreement with formerly defined climate regions. In the final step, anomalies of 10 yearlong averages from 2021 until 2090 were calculated and then spatially classified. The classification revealed four complex regions of changing climate conditions. The derived patterns show large differences in the spatial distribution of future precipitation and climatic water balance changes. In contrast, temperature anomalies are almost independent of these patterns and nearly equally distributed.

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