DETERMINATION IN THE SYSTEM CENTER- RADIUS OF INTERVAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN APPLYING INDEX METHOD OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Journal Title: Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практик - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 22
Abstract
The index method in economic statistics is one of the main methods of economic analysis. In the case when the elements of index by the effects of selective observation are determined, the problem of error evaluation of the results is appeared. One way to reduce an error of selective method can be an increase in selective size, due to increasing costs for research. The uncertainty that arises in this case, according to the regulatory document ISO / IEC Guide 98-3: 2008 (Guide to the expression of uncertainly in measurement (GUM: 1955) IDT is divided into two groups. There are: uncertainty of type A, which is defined by methods of statistical analysis, and uncertainty of type B, which is defined by non-statistical methods. It is set a task of determining the interval of uncertainty of type B in calculating the values of main types of composite index using in economic statistics: the turnover index, the volume index of sales, a price index of Paasche and Laspeyres. The expressions for calculating the values of basic types of composite statistics index on conditions that their determination in the form of interval numbers given in the system center-radius. It is shown that ignoring the interval nature of received data can lead to erroneous conclusions about changes in the state of analyzed economic systems. It is made a numerical example illustrating the results.
Authors and Affiliations
V. Dubnickiy, A. Kobylin, O. Miroshnik
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