Abstract

Objective: To simulate and estimate the cardiovascular events associated with a representative Indian population of western India using UKPDS outcomes model and UKPDS risk engine. Methods: The data regarding the input variables was entered into the risk engine and the outcomes model. Projections for 1, 5 and 10 years was run on the engine and output determined. The data for each patient was processed using the diabetes risk engine to calculate an estimate of the forecasted value for the cardiovascular complications after a period of 10 years. Results:The absolute and relative risk along with 95% CI for CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke for 10 years for CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 2.65, 8.5, 5.95 and 1.15. The relative risk and 95% CI for CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 13.6, 4, 2.9 and 3.6. The mean and 95% CI of cases of ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, heart failure, cardiovascular disease, amputation and death for 1, 5 and 10 was 1.1, 8.3, 10.5; 2.2, 17.1, 27.2; 1.0, 7.1, 10.9; 0.9, 7.2, 11.2; 0.8, 3.9 and 6.8; 4.8, 31.4 and 55.5 respectively. Conclusions: The present investigation demonstrated that the co-morbid factors play a pivotal role in exacerbating diabetes and associated complications. Simulated projections of diabetic patients can predict serious life threatening cardiovascular consequences in the patients of diabetes in the representative cohort from western India.

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