DEVELOPING AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR FINANCIAL CRISES IN VIETNAM
Journal Title: Asian Economic and Financial Review - Year 2017, Vol 7, Issue 4
Abstract
In this paper, we develop an applicable early warning model that can predict financial crises for Vietnam. To achieve this goal, we analyze and extend the existing early warning models which have been developed by Kaminsky et al. (1998); Goldstein et al. (2000) and Edison (2003) by using the signal approach. The model observes several indicators (signals) that tend to have an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a financial crisis. When an indicator exceeds or falls below a given threshold, then it sends a ?signal? that a financial crisis might occur within a certain period (12 or 24 months). We use 14 most relevant indicators to predict potential crises in Vietnam?s economy. In terms of practice, policy makers should have better insights about the vulnerability of the economy in order to recognize financial crises at an earlier stage. Therefore, the authors offer some recommendations for policy makers how to achieve the highest efficiency in warning and preventing future financial crises in Vietnam.
Authors and Affiliations
Tristan Nguyen*| Fresenius University, Munich/Germany, Nguyen Ngoc Duy| Berlin School of Economics and Law, Berlin/Germany
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP2350
- DOI -
- Views 536
- Downloads 42
EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE ARRANGEMENTS ON TRADE COOPERATION IN BRICS COUNTRIES
This paper investigated the effects of imposed exchange rate arrangements on trade volume of BRICS countries. This study examined emerging economies, were consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa during...
THE IMPACT OF TRANSFERRING MILITARY CONFRONTATION TO ECONOMIC COOPERATION FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH - ASEAN PANEL ANALYSIS
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is one of the three major economic regions besides the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU). In addition to regional economic integration,...
CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF VOLATILITY IN EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK MARKET PRICES: A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN
This study attempted to investigate the direction of causation between the volatilities of exchange rate and stock market prices in Pakistan. Monthly time series data of Karachi Stock Exchange prices (KSE-100 Index) and...
RELEVANCY OF BANKING SERVICES’ COSTS: THE CASE OF LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS IN JORDAN
The current study utilises the quantitative methodology research approach to achieve two objectives. These include; firstly, to identify the main acceptance banking services at Tafila governorate, and secondly, to identi...
DIGITIZATION: ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & TRADE “WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SERVICES AND MSME SECTOR OF INDIA”
This study discusses the impact of digitisation on India?s two most vibrant and high potential segments for future growth: services sector and MSME segments. We find that there is a significant rise in growth rate for t...