Development of a method to calculate the probability of a berth failure under vertical stochastic load
Journal Title: Восточно-Европейский журнал передовых технологий - Year 2019, Vol 1, Issue 3
Abstract
We developed the method for determining the probability of achieving the maximum value of loads from the cargo that is stored at the port terminal warehouse on the front wall of the berth under conditions of uncertainty of the moments of vessel approach and their loading. The method is based on the construction and analysis of the stochastic model of operation of a port terminal, consisting of a single berth and a warehouse together with the reloading equipment. The process of the arrival of vessels with cargo is supposed to be described by the model of a complex Poisson process; the whole cargo unloaded from the vessels arrives at a warehouse and is transported from a warehouse by the land transport in a uniform way at constant intensity. The probabilistic model of the operation of the system "a warehouse – a berth" at the port terminal was constructed with the help of the mathematical theory of risk. We formulated the criterion of safe operation of a berth at its structural elements being influenced by the random load of the cargo, stored in a warehouse in the rear of the berth, as the probability of not exceeding the maximum admissible value of the pressure on the front wall of the berth (according to the Coulomb law). To find the probability of a berth failure, the linear integral equation of the convolution type, the solution to which was found for a series of particular cases, was derived. Based on the found probability for a berth failure, two practically important problems were stated and solved. First, the values of intensity of cargo transporting from a warehouse, which ensures the absence of a failure with the small enough assigned probability, were determined. Second, we stated the criterion of the economic viability of insuring the port losses as a result of elimination of consequences of a berth failure due to the maximum admissible value being exceeded by loads over the assigned period of time. The numerical illustration of the specified problems was presented
Authors and Affiliations
Denys Bezushko, Konstantin Egupov, Mykhaylo Postan
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP666171
- DOI 10.15587/1729-4061.2019.155121
- Views 142
- Downloads 0
A comparative analysis of the assessment results of the competence of technical experts by methods of analytic hierarchy process and with using the Rasch model
<p>Known scales (criteria) for assessing the competence of experts in the field of technical regulation using the method of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and Rasch model are investigated. The main features of constr...
Results of research into thermal-technical characteristics of solar collector
<p>We developed a new design of an air solar collector made in the form of an inseparable power unit, which includes a frame with heat-insulated walls, single glazing and a selective surface on its bottom. We defined a n...
Studying the physicochemical regularities in the color- and phase formation processes of clinker ceramic materials
<p>The paper reports results of a comprehensive study, aimed at developing formulation-technological parameters for obtaining volumetrically dyed clinker ceramic materials with a wide range of colors. A possibility has b...
Robust identification of non-stationary objects with nongaussian interference
<p>The problem of identification of non-stationary parameters of a linear object, which can be described by the first-order Markov model, with non-Gaussian interference is considered. The identification algorithm is a gr...
Development of a formal algorithm for the formulation of a dual linear optimization problem
<p>The rigorous formal algorithm for formulating a dual problem for different forms (general, basic, standard, and canonical) of a primal linear programming problem is proposed. First, definitions of a pair of dual probl...