Diagnostics of the Regional Economic Development Based on a System of Leading Indicators
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2014, Vol 2014, Issue 4
Abstract
The article analyzes the prospects of using a system of consolidated economic development indicator indices for operational diagnostics of the regional economic development. The analysis shows that inclusion of consolidated leading, coincident, and lagging indicators into the system of operational diagnostics of the socio-economic development of regions allows predicting the trends for the immediate future and diagnosing the economic development of a region as pre-critical, critical, or as growth depending on the dynamics and temporal correlation of the turning points of consolidated indicators. Using the example of Kharkiv region, smoothing and search for the turning points in the economic development were conducted on the basis of monthly data using filtration. Consolidated leading, coincident, and lagging indicator indices were constructed which suggest the leading character of erosion of the purchasing power of the population relative to the decrease in industrial production volumes. Analysis of the dynamics of consolidated indicators over the past two years allowed concluding that the critical situation is still in progress and currently there are no signs of stabilization observed. After a certain increase in late 2013, the consolidated leading indicator index dropped drastically again, which suggests a new wave of crisis developments.
Authors and Affiliations
Olga Veshchypan, Olha Poliakova
Keywords
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