ECONOMETRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINE IN SERVICES
Journal Title: Вісник Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка. Економіка. - Year 2014, Vol 4, Issue 157
Abstract
Econometrical models of the services export from Ukraine and the import to Ukraine in general, from the CIS countries, other European and Asian countries are constructed based on the quarterly data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2009- 2012.These models are constructed based on seasonal and trend components. We considered the linear trend component in all models, except models for services export from Ukraine in general and in the CIS countries, because the residuals obtained for these models are positively autocorrelated. So we considered parabolic trend components for these two cases. All constructed models correspond to statistical data according to the Fisher test for significance level α = 0,05. Also we conclude that there is no autocorrelation in residuals in case of models fitted to the export of services to Asia and the import of services from the CIS countries and Asia based on Durbin-Watson test. Since the constructed models correspond to statistical data according to the Fisher test, we constructed point and interval forecasts for significance level α = 0,05 for them for I-IV quarters of 2013.
Authors and Affiliations
Vasyl Yeleyko, Rostyslav Bodnar
Keywords
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- EP ID EP403131
- DOI 10.17721/1728-2667.2014/157-4/7
- Views 30
- Downloads 0
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