Economic growth and fiscal–monetary policy coordination

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Economic growth and fiscal–monetary policy coordination

Journal Title: Економічний вісник університету - Year 2016, Vol 1, Issue 31

Abstract

The object of the research is the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and the methods of the estimation of its effect on economic growth in Ukraine as well as in the other developed and emerging countries. The main aim of the research is to find out whether and how the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies affects economic growth in a country; estimate the impact of their coordination policy on economic growth on the base of the build econometric panel data models and elaborate the propositions about effective government strategies for macroeconomic stability achievement and stimulation of the economic growth in short and long run. The study used general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, methods of grouping, detailing, generalization and systematization of data, as well as economic and mathematical methods, including econometrics panel data methods and models. The results. Fiscal and monetary policies jointly influence on economic growth through the key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rate etc, The joint statistical investigation of fiscal and monetary policies with real GDP growth and the main macroeconomic indicators in the developed and emerging countries revealed that, on average, coordinated policies are more supportive for non-inflationary economic growth than uncoordinated. However, in general, as statistical analysis has shown, evidence is mixed, so further quantitative investigation on the based of econometric tools has been done. In this context the panel data empirical model of economic growth and some of it modifications incorporating separate and joint effects of fiscal and monetary policy were elaborated. Quantitative econometric analysis of economic growth and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, undertaken on the basis of neoclassical model of growth and panel data methodology, revealed that there is an impact of coordination of fiscal and monetary policies on the shortand medium-term economic growth. However, in the long run there are fundamental factors (initial GDP, capital formation, human capital, and trade freedom) that matter. The results can be used to form government programs and strategies for macroeconomic stability achievement and stimulation of the economic growth in short and medium terms as well as in long run. Conclusions. The results of the system theoretical, statistical and econometrics analysis reveal that coordination of fiscal and monetary policies do matter in the short to medium run. More specifically, it has been found that the «ideal» policy mix for economic growth is one of contractionary fiscal and expansionary monetary policy, however, in the long run there are fundamental factors that matter. As for economic policies in Ukraine, given the empirical findings it is desirable to pursue reasonably tight fiscal and reasonably expansionary monetary policies to achieve higher rates of economic growth in the short and medium run, while improving the economy’s institutional framework, physical and human capital to sustain higher rates of growth in the long run.

Authors and Affiliations

Iryna Lukianenko, Victor Tokarchuk

Keywords

system analysis; economic growth; monetary policy; fiscal policy; joint effect; panel data models

EP ID EP176472
DOI -
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