Economic Impact of the Recent Decrease in Social Security Contributions in Ukraine
Journal Title: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine - Year 2016, Vol 0, Issue 237
Abstract
Social security contributions paid by firms were massively reduced in January 2016. We employ a state-of-the-art DSGE model to assess the effects of this measure on output, private consumption, and other key macroeconomic variables. We find that it significantly boosts GDP and consumption while reducing inflation, and that these effects are sizable both in the short-term and in the long-term. We also report that the short-term impact is significantly stronger under an inflation targeting regime than under exchange rate stabilization.
Authors and Affiliations
Philipp Engler, Simon Voigts, Robert Kirchner, Oleksandra Betliy
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP426506
- DOI 10.26531/vnbu2016.237.020
- Views 124
- Downloads 0
Institutional Set-Up and Mandates of Macroprudential Authorities: International Experience and Benchmarks for Ukraine
Defining macroprudential authority is one of the key steps in ensuring financial stability. Within the framework of general principles defined by international institutions lie various versions of macroprudential archite...
National Bank of Ukraine Econometric Model for the Assessment of Banks’ Credit Risk and Support Vector Machine Alternative
Econometric models of credit scoring started with the introduction of Altman’s simple z-model in 1968, but since then these models have become more and more sophisticated, some even use Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) a...
Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?
We study survey data of inflation and exchange rate expectations in Ukraine. These data are available for households, firms and professional forecasters. We document some unique properties of these data as well as some l...
Quasi-Competitiveness of the Audit Services Market in Ukraine: The Aspect of European Integration
In the context of European integration processes and transformations in the banking sector, a study of the concentration of the audit services market in Ukraine, one of the most regulated markets, was held. The authors a...
A Strategic Document on Monetary Policy for the Period of the Inflation Targeting Adoption in Ukraine
The article explains why the Main Guidelines of Monetary Policy need to be adopted in a new format: A monetary policy strategy for 2016-2020. This document must combine the program component (goals, objectives and ways o...