Evolutional Pre-Conditions of Famine Occurrence in Periods of Socio-Economic Crises

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Evolutional Pre-Conditions of Famine Occurrence in Periods of Socio-Economic Crises

Journal Title: Демографія та соціальна економіка - Year 2014, Vol 21, Issue

Abstract

Reasons and consequences of large-scale famine in Ukraine and in the regions of Russia in the 20th century are often connected with the political factor. However its occurrence had fundamental socio-economic preconditions. Their insufficient studying facilitates conservation of risk of «sudden» economic crises related to demographic and socio-humanitarian consequences. This determines the actuality of studying the regularity of occurrence of humanitarian catastrophes. The mentioned regularities were considered by our predecessors in the context of social and economic dynamics as agricultural and food crises arising at the beginning of the Kondratiev’s Long Waves in periods of tensions, often accompanied by revolutions and wars. Within the framework of this approach we presented a hypothesis that at the early development stage of the new technological modes the financial position of some traditional industries is violated through the deficit of resources, redistributed on other, innovative directions, in particular on the construction of the new technological mode. Confirmation of this hypothesis requires the non-fragmentary system consideration. It defined the purpose of the article – analysis of economic mechanisms of the risk of large-scale famine occurrence. The basis of our analysis is grounded on the macroeconomic methodology of economic system consideration in the format of interconnection of its institutional sectors – subsystems set in SNA: households, firms, state, world economy. The macroeconomic models of their dynamic interaction are considered. The hypothesis of this process’ reflection by the alternative systems of public values dynamic (humanitarian and hierarchical) is proposed. The evolutionary pre-conditions of the large-scale famine occurrence in transitional periods of the technological modes replacement in national economies are determined. It is found that the key factor is the development lag of the previous technological mode. It preconditioned the appearance of «weak bars» of output level decline in a national economy. The macroeconomic mechanism of occurrence and realization of large-scale famine risk is described in terms of population income level decline below the level of autonomous consumption. It is shown that the weakness of macroeconomic instruments is compensated by the increased application of political instruments. That creates essential precondition for the system of public values deformation.

Authors and Affiliations

I. P. Маkаrеnkо

Keywords

economic system subsystems structure economic dynamics technological modes innovation Kondratiev’s Long Waves systems of values risk of famine occurrence есonomic security macroeconomic models level of autonomous consumption.

EP ID EP287188
DOI 10.15407/dse2014.01.180
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