Examining the South China Sea Dispute with General Morphological Analysis
Journal Title: Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations - Year 2023, Vol 3, Issue 8
Abstract
The South China Sea dispute is among the most volatile flashpoints in contemporary international relations. This study examines this dispute using the general morphological analysis (GMA) methodology employing eight factors of analysis. These produced 65,536 distinct outcomes in a cross-consistency matrix (CCM) which exist on a spectrum of plausibility. Three scenarios were chosen for foresight analysis which project contemporary trends into the near-to-mid-term future. After the analysis of hundreds of different combinations from the CCM which remained after auditing for analytical noise and plausibility this research found that much of the foresight produced scenarios which were similar to a ‘dispute stagnation’ scenario. This highlights the present realities of the dispute wherein all parties have entrenched into their political and physical positions with little alternative outside of direct confrontation, an outcome which though possible, is unappealing to claimants due to the secondary effects which it would bring.
Authors and Affiliations
Zachary Lavengood
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP740614
- DOI 10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17688.2
- Views 38
- Downloads 1
Qualifying for international and national protection under the Polish legal order: Some remarks in the context of the war in Ukraine
The Russian Federation's actions against Ukraine in February 2014, having - at the time - the form of hybrid warfare, followed later by an armed assault that took place on 24 February 2022, have resulted in an unpreceden...
Examining the South China Sea Dispute with General Morphological Analysis
The South China Sea dispute is among the most volatile flashpoints in contemporary international relations. This study examines this dispute using the general morphological analysis (GMA) methodology employing eight fact...
Cyber Technology and the European Union’s Gestaltian Approach to China
Contemporary European Union (EU) and China relations are marked by a simultaneously beneficial, conflictual and competitive partnership. This is aptly evident in the cyber technology realm. This paper contends that the E...
Russian-Venezuelan relations during the COVID-19 pandemic. The perspective of Russia's superpower interests
Background: The fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has been instrumentalised on several occasions by powers that have seen a new sphere for realising their interests. One such power is the Russian Federation. The articl...
Dynamics of EU Central and Eastern European donors’ development cooperation
The article deals with both qualitative and quantitative aspects of development assistance provided by the 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are members of the European Union (EU). The aim is to answer...