Expectations of medium-scale fluctuations of ecological and economic development
Journal Title: Економіка: реалії часу - Year 2017, Vol 2, Issue 30
Abstract
The article reveals the necessity of studying the methods of nonlinear economic theory based on the principles of increasing returns to scale, uncertainty and multi-variant development. A theory of economic fluctuations is treated as the structural part of modern nonlinear economic theory. The economic fluctuations are seen as oscillations of the economic system parameters, which can be created both by economic system itself and external environment as well. Changes which occurred due to fluctuations are causing economic system deviations from the level of homeostasis. It is developed econophysic model predicting middle scale-fluctuations, according to which, the daily fluctuations on the stock market scaling more than 30% are expected with 12% probability, the fluctuations of more than 10% per day are expected with 23% probability. Also fluctuations of air emissions that exceed 30% level of previous year level are expected with 13% probability.
Authors and Affiliations
Oleksandr KUBATKO
Keywords
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