FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING STOCHASTIC MODELS: REFERENCE FROM MULTI-COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF KAZAKHSTAN
Journal Title: Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration - Year 2023, Vol 146, Issue 4
Abstract
Aimed at studying the Multi-Commodity Exchange of Kazakhstan through the use of stochastic models of financial forecasting in the context of globalization. Today, nonlinear forecasting models, including artificial neural networks, are widely used in financial forecasting. Thus nonlinear models, in contrast to linear forecasting models, require higher computing systems and data for practical training and data processing. The purpose of the article is to assess the state of the Commodity Exchange of Kazakhstan in financial forecasting using stochastic models, thus studying the importance of financial forecasting for the correct adoption of investment decisions on the KASE Commodity Exchange. The article shows a systematic approach to creating a simplified and effective forecasting model that allows you to make optimal decisions using minimal calculation systems in the process of making optimal investment decisions. Natural gas futures traded on the commodity and raw materials exchange of Kazakhstan were identified as a suitable object for research, given the need for massive changes in the energy structure of Kazakhstan. In the article, we used data analysis and statistical methods to determine optimal forecasting strategies and features, as a result of which we studied and determined an accurate linear forecasting model. The analysis of the data also determined the context of the study, identifying a positive change in relation to the fuel and energy base of market participants, definitions were made using a significant change in the assessment of this research object. In the article, when developing a financial forecasting model, several areas were studied, including the identification of weekly and annual patterns, studies of the introduction of seasonal and exogenous variables. The article concludes that attempts to reduce external dependence and separate data on the Shum increase the performance of a model with a minimum of computational data and systems.
Authors and Affiliations
D. R. Turarov, A. A. Isaeva
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP729463
- DOI 10.26577/be.2023.v146.i4.012
- Views 51
- Downloads 0
BIBLIOMETRIC STUDY: THE IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON ECONOMIC PROGRESS
Today, access to education remains a severe problem in Kazakhstan. Despite the Government’s efforts to improve the education system, more efforts should be made to improve the availability of...
EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INVESTMENTS INTO HUMAN CAPITAL AT THE MACRO LEVEL
This article is devoted to the study of the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of financing the education sector as an important industry that contributes to the creation of conditions for accelerated economic growt...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA IN THE POST-PANDEMIC PERIOD. OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH KAZAKHSTAN IN THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
The article pays special attention to the most currently discussed topic – the development of the world economy in the post-pandemic period. In particular, the possibilities of increasing trade and economic relations be...
TAX SYSTEM OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN: CURRENT ISSUES AND MAIN DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES
The article outlines the causes why the tax has undergone many changes in economic content and meaning from ancient historical development to the current day. It is determined that taxes arose together wit...
AN OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY OF KAZAKHSTAN: DEVELOPMENT TRENDS BETWEEN 2008-2022
This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Kazakhstan's economy at present and review the changes that have occurred over the period from 2008 to 2022. To capture the key macroeconomic aspects, the dynam...