Forecasting Exports of Tea from India : Application of Arima Model

Journal Title: JOURNAL OF COMMERCE AND TRADE - Year 2017, Vol 12, Issue 2

Abstract

Exports form an integral part of decision making for a large country like India. Tea is an important beverage which is homogeneously essential in the domestic sector and across the globe, transcending geographical boundaries, social groups and ages. About seventy three percent of the world's tea exports come from four countries, including India. This paper uses time series model namely ARIMA to make short term forecasting of tea exports in India using 79 monthly observations. The battery of diagnostic tests are conducted to examine the efficacy of the model hence built. The model ARIMA (1,1,0) has the lowest AIC and BIC criteria, since it has two parameters following the principle of parsimony ,this model is chosen An eight period ahead export of tea is predicted. The observations indicate a rising trend in exports. The model fitting is compared with SES and HES to show that ARIMA has higher fitting accuracy than exponential smoothing. The implications of the results developed in the paper is useful for considering short term market fluctuations in export of tea in India.

Authors and Affiliations

Dr. Sudeshna Ghosh

Keywords

Related Articles

Integration & Impact of Information Technology on Indian Economy

India occupies a major place in list of developing countries and is expected to have basic capabilities to compete with world economies. Before 1991, India adopted policy of self-reliance but in this era of LPG, India’s...

Urban Development Planning: The Need for a New Parasdigm

Planning solutions are viewed as a strategy for building new cities and as a means for upgrading existing cities. Little clarity, however, exists about the constituents of possible new paradigms of urban planning. This p...

Pre-British Indian Economy and Self-Sufficient Village Community (It’s Impact on Indian National Movement)

Through this study we can go back to the pre-British times of Indian life and study how the self-sufficient village community has been transformed drastically, and evolved as that of today in about 200 years. Enthusiasti...

A Conceptual Perspective on Brand Switching Behaviour of Consumers in Telecommunication Industry

The best thing to happen to mankind was the mobile phone. India has emerged as the fastest growing mobile phone market in the world. Mobile phone was thought of as a magical gadget in the past. It is a reality now. With...

Cash Flow Valuation of Maruti and Hyundai An Analytical Perspective

This research paper focuses on an analytical valuation perspective of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (MSIL) and Hyundai Motors India Ltd. (HMIL). MSIL is the no. one car maker in India and HMIL takes place second position. The...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP256343
  • DOI -
  • Views 66
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

Dr. Sudeshna Ghosh (2017). Forecasting Exports of Tea from India : Application of Arima Model. JOURNAL OF COMMERCE AND TRADE, 12(2), 116-129. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-256343