Forecasting Mean Temperature using Sarima Model for Junagadh City of Gujarat
Journal Title: International Journal of Agricultural Science and Research (IJASR) - Year 2017, Vol 7, Issue 4
Abstract
Forecasting of temperature can be done by combination of several mathematical models, using time series analysis. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model considers past data and prediction errors and relates its present data to obtain forecast. If time series has seasonality inherent in it, then Season ARIMA models are utilized to make forecast. Mean temperature forecasting for Junagadh city was carried out using SARIMA model, by using the past data from the period of 1984 to 2015. The orders of the model were estimated from the auto correlogram and partial autocorrelogram. Several candidate models were developed for forecasting mean temperature. The model with the least value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was selected as the appropriate model for forecasting mean temperature. SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 1) (12) was selected as the best model for mean temperature forecast. Test for normality of residuals were performed to check the adequacy of the selected model. According to the model diagnostics, the model was reliable for forecasting mean temperatures.
Authors and Affiliations
D. K. Dwivedi, G. R. Sharma, S. S. Wandre
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP237212
- DOI -
- Views 135
- Downloads 0
Climate Change Challenges and Knowledge Gaps in Smallholder Potato Production: The Case of Mauche Ward in Nakuru County, Kenya
This paper explores the climate change challenges, adaptation strategies and knowledge gaps in smallholder potato production in Mauche Ward of Nakuru County, Kenya. Understanding climate change challenges is important in...
Gender Differences in the Workload Related to Household and Farm Activities – A Review
Gender differences are very common in the rural areas, mainly in the developing countries like India. Women are always disadvantaged, due to the lack of education, limited access to resources and patriarchal norms put by...
Quality Characterization of Banana Varieties Grown under West Bengal Conditions
The most extensively cultivated crops all over the world to meet the hunger of poor people is banana. It is highly nutritive and every part of the plant is useful. Six different varieties of banana viz. Grand Naine (AAA)...
A Preliminary Observation on Diversity of Butterflies of Shivagangotri Campus, Davangere University Davangere, Karnataka
Butterflies are the most tantalizing and beautiful creatures, among the insect group, they are often regarded as flagship species, which are also indicators of ecological changes in their surroundings. Butterflies also h...
Integration of Oil Markets In India
The present study was undertaken to assess the market integration of oils in India. Secondary data on monthly wholesale prices were collected for the period of 24 years, i.e., from 1980-81 to 2003-04. The data were colle...