Forecasting of Cotton Area, Production and Productivity using Trend analysis
Journal Title: International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology (IJRASET) - Year 2015, Vol 3, Issue 12
Abstract
The retrospective study was conducted to check the trend analysis of area, production and Productivity for Cotton in Tamil Nadu. The findings of the study are based on data during the years (1970 to 2012). Three Models of trend analysis were applied .The models were Linear Trend Model, Quadratic Trend Model and Cubic Trend Model. In the present study was forecasting model for next eight year of area, production and productivity for the cotton were estimated. The exploration of forecasted period from 2013 to 2020 was presented. The best fitted selected model forecasted an area of 1.138(lakh.ha) from 2.083(lakh.ha), production is of about 4.404(lakh.bales) from 5.151(lakh bales) and finally productivity of 981(Kg/ha) from 1370(Kg/ha) respectively were estimated for the years 2013-20. Forecast values are very close to actual values and have positively increased is due to availability of cotton crops in Tamil Nadu.
Authors and Affiliations
M. Sundar Rajan, M. Palanivel, S. Kalai Mohan
Keywords
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