Forecasting of foreign direct investments in Ukraine on the base of ARIMA-models
Journal Title: Вісник соціально-економічних досліджень - Year 2018, Vol 2, Issue 66
Abstract
The article analyzes the problematic aspects of constructing the models of forecasting foreign direct investment in Ukraine. The expediency of using the autoregressive integrated moving average methodology for this purpose is justified. The transformation method of non-stationary time series of direct foreign investments into Ukraine to the stationary type is proposed. In order to be able to use the ARIMA-model, the output time series have been converted to static ones using the Statistica package by two-step transformation. Firstly, smoothing based on a simple moving average for the two points and then subtraction of the linear trend have been conducted. The ARIMA-model (2,0,0) has shown the lowest error values for MSE, AIC and BIC, indicating that it approximates the time series of FDI in Ukraine for the analyzed period in the best way and can be selected for short-term forecasting. The obtained ARIMA- model (2,0,0) statistical parameters of foreign direct investment prediction in Ukraine prove the adequacy of ARIMA- model and suitability for the formation of short-term forecasts. The forecast of foreign direct investment in Ukraine for 2018 based on the proposed ARIMA-model (2,0,0) in fact coincides with the forecasts of most investment companies and the National Bank of Ukraine. The article emphasizes that despite the series of measures aimed to deregulate the economy, which have been adopted by the government, investors are still afraid to invest in Ukraine due to the high level of corruption, slow implementation of reforms and unstable economy. It is stressed that without cardinal improvement of business climate and investment attractiveness, an increase in investment or rapid economic development in Ukraine should not been expected.
Authors and Affiliations
Bohdan Kyshakevych, Maryna Nakhaeva
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP441762
- DOI 10.33987/vsed.2(66).2018.233-243
- Views 95
- Downloads 0
DECENTRALIZATION OF GOVERNANCE AS AN INSTITUTIONAL FACTOR OF SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMY
The research results of decentralization processes in Ukraine as a fundamental institutional change are presented in the article. On the basis of revealed peculiarities of globalization influence and Industrial Revolutio...
FEATURES OF RESTRUCTURING PROCESS IN UKRAINIAN BANKING SECTOR AT THE PRESENT STAGE
The main measures of restructuring that applied in a process of banks financial rehabilitation in Ukraine are described in the article. Major areas of Ukraine’s banks restructuring in terms of efficiency and expediency a...
ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION OF FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENTERPRISES OF TRAVEL INDUSTRY IN PRECARPATHIAN REGION
The article analyzes the main factors of enterprises development of Ukrainian tourism industry on the example of Precarpathian region. It is proved that the current situation in Ukraine and the military conflict in the E...
CONCEPTUAL DIRECTIONS OF IMPROVEMENT QUALITY OF INTEGRATIVE INTERACTION OF THE JORDAN BASIN COUNTRIES
The article analyzes the characteristics of integrative interaction of the countries of the Jordan Basin. Special attention is paid to the development of regional integration as a key aspect of the formation of a stable...
Forecasting of foreign direct investments in Ukraine on the base of ARIMA-models
The article analyzes the problematic aspects of constructing the models of forecasting foreign direct investment in Ukraine. The expediency of using the autoregressive integrated moving average methodology for this purpo...