Forecasting on the long-term sustainability of the employees provident fund in Malaysia via the Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model
Journal Title: Business and Economic Horizons - Year 2018, Vol 14, Issue 1
Abstract
This study employs the use of Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA (1,1,0) model for the estimation and forecasts based on the annual data of EPF balances, which serve as a proxy to EPF sustainability, together with the yearly data of possible determinants namely investment earnings, nominal income, elderly population, life expectancy and mortality rate in Malaysia for the 1960 – 2010 and 2010 - 2014 periods, respectively. Amid a negative sentiment and conceivably bleak outlook on the long term EPF inadequacy to provide adequate incomes to elderly persons, the prognosis of this study instead reveals otherwise and is found to be in support for the long term prospect and sustainability of the EPF. With necessary improvements are underway to strengthen the performance of the administered EPF system, it is likely to believe that the EPF organization is committed to promoting its product as a more inclusive and equitable scheme in Malaysia.
Authors and Affiliations
Sallahuddin Hassan, Zalila Othman
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP448147
- DOI 10.15208/beh.2018.4
- Views 88
- Downloads 0
Forecasting on the long-term sustainability of the employees provident fund in Malaysia via the Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model
This study employs the use of Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA (1,1,0) model for the estimation and forecasts based on the annual data of EPF balances, which serve as a proxy to EPF sustainability, together with the yearly data of pos...
The impact of government consumption on the private expenditures in developing country: the case of Indonesia
The relationship between government actions and private reactions is an important subject of continuing discussion in fiscal policy. This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of government consumption on priva...
Determinants of Chinese demand for tourism in Malaysia
Tourism sector in Malaysia has always been one of its focal service industries not only in the past, but in the future as well in which Malaysian government has been focusing on diverting its economic activities from a r...
Assessing the financial security of the engineering enterprises as preconditions of application of anti-crisis management: practical aspect
Today, engineering enterprises in Ukraine are experiencing poor development. The crisis development of many domestic engineering enterprises is reinforced by both internal and external factors, so it is critical to devel...
Demand-side factors of housing price increases in Turkey: Blanchard-Quah SVAR model
A bubble in the housing sector is defined as an unprecedented upsurge in house prices which cannot explained by fundamental determinants of the housing sector. This study examines demand-side factors of real estate secto...