Forecasting the Number of Prospective University Applicants Depending on Demographic Changes and Attractiveness of Higher Education
Journal Title: Проблеми економіки - Year 2015, Vol 2015, Issue 3
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to develop a methodological approach to evaluating and predicting the number of prospective applicants to universities of III-IV level of accreditation in the changing demographic situation and the drop in the level of higher education attractiveness, which is aimed at improving both the efficiency of the provided educational services as well as prestige of university graduates in the labor market. The analysis of literary sources on the problem of forecasting the number of prospective university applicants showed that this issue is considered from the standpoint of the three markets: the market of educational services, labor market and market of the population preferences concerning higher education. There has been developed a methodical approach to forecasting the number of potential university applicants, which is based on analyzing the demographic situation in the country and assessing the education market development. The analysis allowed to make a conclusion that it is appropriate to forecast the number of prospective applicants to universities of III-IV level of accreditation taking into account the identified trends in the birth rate and factor of higher education attractiveness. On this basis a technique for evaluating the demand for services of higher education establishments has been formed and rules of recognition and estimation of the forecast situation have been developed. Prospects for further studies in this direction are forecasting the need for specialists with higher education by types of economic activities and formation on this basis of the number of allocated state-funded places.
Authors and Affiliations
Olena Rayevnyeva, Irina Aksyonova
Keywords
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