Forecasting travel time reliability in urban road transpo
Journal Title: Archives of Transport - Year 2017, Vol 43, Issue 3
Abstract
Assessment of travel time reliability as a fundamental factor in travel behaviour has become a very important aspect in both transport modelling and economic appraisal. Improved reliability could provide a significant economic benefit if it is adequately calculated in cost-benefit analyses for which the theoretical background has already been set. However, methods to forecast travel time reliability as well as travel behaviour models including its effects are rather scarce and there is a need for development in this field. Another important aspect could be the influencing factor of reliability in travel demand management and related policy-making. Therefore, this paper intends to further analyse reliability focusing exclusively on urban road transport based on automatic measurements of journey times and traffic volumes from a dataset of the city of Budapest. The main finding and the novelty of the study is a model which can forecast the standard deviation of travel times based on the volume-capacity ratio and the free-flow travel time. The paper also provides a real-life numerical experiment in which the proposed model has been compared with other, existing ones. It proves that besides existing mean-delay-based models, travel time reliability can be forecasted based on the volume-capacity ratio with an adequate accuracy.<br/><br/>
Authors and Affiliations
Mattias Juhász, Tamás Mátrai, Csaba Koren
Analysis of travel behaviour in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia: an application of the theory of planned behaviour
In order to understand travellers’ willingness to use the train in Petaling Jaya, this study adds four predictors - situational factors, trust, novelty seeking and external influence - to the existing model of theory of...
Conceptual approach to select parameters of hydrostatic and mechanical transmissions for wheel tractors designed for agricultural operations
As a result of theoretical and experimental efforts, innovative scientifically grounded conceptual approach to select hydrostatic and mechanical transmissions (HMT) for wheel tractors designed for agricultural operations...
Object-oriented programming as a method for developing software in rail-traffic-control computer systems
The paper focuses on a new method for specifying safe software for rail traffic control systems. The presented method is particularly convenient to define typical devices and subsystems used in traffic control, defined a...
Green Driver: driving behaviors revisited on safety
Interactions between road users, motor vehicles, and environment affect to driver’s travel behavior; however, frailer of proper interaction may lead to ever-increasing road crashes, injuries and fatalities. The current s...
THE USE OF HEURISTIC ALGORITHMS TO OPTIMIZE THE TRANSPORT ISSUES ON THE EXAMPLE OF MUNICIPAL SERVICES COMPANIES
In this article the main optimization problems in the municipal services companies were presented. These problems concern the issue of vehicle routing. The mathematical models of these problems were described. The functi...