FRACTAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF BUDGETING EFFICIENCY IN UKRAINE UND ERCONDITIONS OF TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE
Journal Title: Вісник Університету банківської справи - Year 2018, Vol 0, Issue 3
Abstract
The article analyzes the revenue and expenditure part of the budget of Ukraine, assesses their dynamics based on the use of basic and chain indexes, and it is established that the dynamics of the budget is nonlinear with a nonsmooth character — alternatively, it increases, then decreases. To analyze the effi ciency of budgeting, the income expense ratio has been calculated and imbalances have been identifi ed. Th e author's concept of forecasting of budgeting effi ciency in Ukraine is proposed on the basis of fractal analysis and determination of the type of dynamics, the method of organization of the process and integration of the totality of mathematical methods of forecasting with the help of moving average, exponentially smoothed simple average, growth rates taking into account seasonality and Hurwitz's criterion. Projections are made taking into account instability of fi lling and distribution of the budget of Ukraine in the conditions of transformation changes.
Authors and Affiliations
Марія Квасній, Вероніка Тимергазіна
Keywords
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