GIS-based Methods for Estimating Missing Poverty Rates & Projecting Future Rates in Census Tracts
Journal Title: Review of Economics & Finance - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue 3
Abstract
Since 2000 census, the American Community Survey (ACS) publishes poverty rate data based on five-year estimates only. We look at poverty rate estimation in two stages. In part 1, a situation where 5% of the poverty rate data is purposely missing from census tracts is simulated. Several interpolation methods were tried in GIS including Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) and local polynomial interpolation (LPI). It is seen that using the EBK method a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of 4.1% in the estimation process can be achieved as validated by the 2007-11 five year interval estimates of ACS poverty data. In part 2, the census tract poverty rates from 2000 as well as the ACS five year interval estimates from 2005-09, 2006-10 and 2007-11 were processed by first devising a procedure for unifying the underlying variable census tract geography. Then, poverty data for the time periods were used to create three dimensional poverty rate surfaces using the EBK method. Geographically Weighted Regression method enabled validation of the prediction process with a very low MAPE of 1.5% in comparison to the predicted poverty surface, followed by prediction of poverty rates across census tracts for a “future” period in time.
Authors and Affiliations
Srini Vasan, Adélamar Alcántara
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP259745
- DOI -
- Views 61
- Downloads 0
The US Monetary Base and Major World Equity Markets: An Empirical Investigation
This paper investigates the relationship between the US monetary base and the five largest equity indices of the world. The mainstay of the study is the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). Analyzing impulse response fu...
Key Factors for Success of Social Enterprises in Italy: Analysis of Financial and Operating Performance
Assessing social performance is one of the greatest challenges for practitioners and researchers in social entrepreneurship. Even though social enterprises (SEs) have the main goal of achieving social purposes, they shou...
Why Has Wind Power Capacity Been Overinvested Under Uncertainty in China?
There are many uncertainties associated with the investment in wind power capacity in China. Nevertheless, wind capacity in China has been overinvested in the past several years and continues to be invested. This study a...
Financial Deepening, Economic Growth and Corruption: The Case of Islamic Banking
As Islamic banking is becoming popular among bank customers, attempts are made in this study to examine the relationship between the corruption level and financial market deregulation, which causes financial deepening, u...
Financial Crisis Transmission: Foreign Ownership vs. Foreign Funding?
We investigate whether the credit contraction that followed the global financial crisis is due to high foreign bank ownership or high reliance of banks on foreign funding. We apply panel vector auto-regressions to quarte...