Global Public Debt Since 1995: Long-Term Trends, Current Phase, Medium-Term Outlook for Economic Growth
Journal Title: Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies - Year 2023, Vol 6, Issue 04
Abstract
Topic. The paper aims to identify long-term trends in global public debt (since 1995), provide its current overview (the magnitude of debt, concentration levels among participants and instruments, risk factors in the current phase of debt accumulation) and estimate its impact on global economic development over the medium term. This analysis has significant scientific and practical relevance due to the unprecedented character of factors affecting global level of indebtedness in the past few years (the Covid-19 pandemic since 2020 and the biggest military conflict in Europe since the Second World War since 2022). Methods. The main sources for the research were reports, outlooks and data bases of national regulators and international organizations (International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank for International Settlements, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) concerning public debt, research in this field conducted by leading research centers and financial market participants. Results. Two major periods in global debt development over time are shown: 1995 – 2007-08 with stable relative global public debt level, and since 2008 – rising levels of public debt. High levels of concentration in the global debt market and even in higher degree the government securities market are analyzed. These markets are characterized by the highly uneven distribution of debt among advanced and developing economies, state and local governments (central governments are main borrowers), instruments (predominantly global debt is issued through bonds nominated in domestic currencies with a straight fix rate). Risk factors in the current (since 2010) wave of global debt accumulation are described: 1. the magnitude of accumulated debt, its higher rate of growth and distribution among countries; 2. debt accumulation during a prolonged period of weak economic growth and investment activity in the 2010s; 3. the consequences of Covid pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. Economic repercussions of a high level of the country’s indebtedness, including its threshold level, are shown. Many key participants of the global public debt market (especially advanced economies) are exposed beyond such threshold. Policy tools for reducing public debt are listed. Preliminary estimates of the medium-term impact of the global debt market conjuncture on global economic development are given. The existence of self-amplifying risks of global stagflation and public debt crisis is revealed. Discussion. The impact of extraordinary factors affecting economic development in the world from 2020 on the global public debt market requires further research.
Authors and Affiliations
M. M. Kudinova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP726940
- DOI 10.47191/jefms/v6-i4-01
- Views 11
- Downloads 0
Discussion on Multi-Tiered Pension Insurance and Old Age Benefit in Vietnam: Overview Study and Policy Recommendations
Ensuring income security for old age for workers is considered the main goal of any pension system in the world. In the context of rapid population aging, building and implementing a multi-tiered retirement system to ens...
Providing Income Tax Article 21 Tax Incentives during the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Stability of Economic Growth in Indonesia
This study discusses the policy analysis of providing Article 21 Income Tax incentives for taxpayers affected by the coronavirus (covid-19) outbreak in order to maintain the stability of economic growth. The aim is to de...
The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Operational Efficiency Ratio, Loan to Deposits Ratio in Private Bank Return on Asset in IDX
Private Bank activities can’t be separated from the company’s profit known as Return On Assets. Bank management needs to maintain the amount of Return On Assets. The goal of this study is to examines the effect of inflat...
Dysfunctions revealing hidden costs-performance in SMEs: Review of the literature
In the new context of globalization, Moroccan companies are increasingly faced with margin pressure. They are challenged to review their strategies and evolve their management tools. In this respect, the issue of hidden...
The Effect of Knowledge Management System and Strategic Management Orientation on Organizational Tni Al Commitment in Ship Building Diving in the Land of Water Mediated by Dynamic Capabilities
The main objective of this study is to analyze the Knowledge Management System and Strategic Management Orientation on the Organizational Commitment of the Indonesian Navy in the Development of Submarines in the Country...