Identification of Allowable Parameter Values in Respect of Fire Emergencies in the Russian Federation
Journal Title: Safety & Fire Technology - Year 2016, Vol 41, Issue 41
Abstract
Aim: Quantify the criterion for attainment of extreme/critical values for the infrequent occurrence of major scale fire emergencies caused by human behaviour. Introduction: During recent years, despite an overall decline in number of emergencies in Russia, incidents have increased in magnitude and consequential scale of loss. Emergency situations increasingly affect more people who experience not only negative material consequences, but also associated psychological stress at the time of the incident and the aftermath. Risk management, defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence of emergency incidents, is targeted at mitigating the probability of events occurring and restrain the effects, in this case the consequences of fire. In recent times, factors linked to human behaviour, which invoke the threat from fires, are a real problem and particularly dangerous for Russia. Generally, some 300 K fires are registered in Russia. According to the data, Russia occupies a leading position in this respect, not only among countries from Western Europe and USA, but also among many less developed countries of the world. Each year some 11K to 16K people die in fire incidents. The magnitude of loss caused by fires exceeds the sum of other losses in the country caused by emergencies linked to human activity, which in reality cannot be recouped. Destruction caused by fire is not only irreplaceable, but additionally requires bigger resources to restore damaged property. The article contains data about fire incidents and consequences, in the Russian Federation, for the years 2005 to 2014. Methodology: Presented a method for the construction of statistical quantile diagrams to substantiate parameter distribution laws for emergency incidents associated with fires. The understanding and application of relevant distribution laws facilitates the prediction of risk, of an event occurring, and the identification of resources necessary to mitigate such risk. Conclusions: It is not possible to completely eliminate negative consequences from emergencies in a society. In order to secure a degree of safety it is only possible to mitigate negative consequences up to an acceptable level, by taking account of combined (simultaneous) interaction of influences. Compliance with designated interaction boundaries is one of the main approaches for ensuring the safety of human life in the environment.
Authors and Affiliations
канд. техн. наук Копнышев С. Л. / Kopnyshev S. L. , Ph. D. , канд. техн. наук Заворотный А. Г. / Zavorotnyy A. G. , Ph. D.
Keywords
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- EP ID EP154338
- DOI 10.12845/bitp.41.1.2016.11
- Views 109
- Downloads 0
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