Is Capital Flight Healthy For Nigerian Economic Growth? An Econometric Investigation
Journal Title: Journal of Empirical Economics - Year 2014, Vol 3, Issue 1
Abstract
Capital flight has been one of the unresolved, perturbing and persistent macroeconomic problems plaguing Nigeria for the past four decades. Consequently, capital flight raises large and important issues for political economy; and policies to reduce them raise profound political questions. This study is a deliberate attempt, using time series data from 1970 to 2010, to investigate the impact of capital flight on economic growth in Nigeria employing econometric approach. The results show that all explanatory variables (CAPFLGT, INTD, TBAL, MfgOutput/GDP) except the exchange rate (EXR) and Domestic Political Climate (DPC) were statistically significant having passed the rule of thumb and conventional t-criteria. Also, the explanatory variables as indicated by the adjusted coefficient of determination (R-2) show that greater proportion of the total variations in RGDP was brought about by variations in the regressors. The test carried out on speed of adjustment (which tests the speed of response of RGDP to changes in net Capital Flight) proves that RGDP has a very low speed of response to the changes in the net capital flight, which implies that net capital flight has a low multipliers effect to the changes in RGDP in Nigeria, having multiplier effect of -0.000043unit; it however has a long-run impact on the aggregate growth of the economy with the mean lag of 7.27 units and median lag of 5.38 units respectively. The value of Durbin-Watson Statistic (DW) shows that there is no presence of autocorrelation; hence the model produced a parsimonious result. The result also shows that there is no endogeneity problem and that the variables, from the econometric tests carried out, were significant. The study recommends the need for policies which stimulate economic growth since increase in economic growth reduces capital flight. Also, there is dire need for governments of various nations to partner with anti-graft agencies to ensure that all channels through which people launder money abroad are stopped.
Authors and Affiliations
Vincent A. Onodugo, Ijeoma E. Kalu, Oluchukwu F. Anowor, Nnaemeka O. Ukweni
Keywords
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