Logical-Probabilistic Assessment of the Risks of Accidents on the Pipelines of Heating Networks
Journal Title: Вентиляція, освітлення та теплогазопостачання - Year 2017, Vol 23, Issue
Abstract
. For multi-factor analysis of the influence of various factors on the operational reliability of thermal networks, there is a need to apply the theory of fuzzy logic and probability theory. The methodology of logical-probabilistic accident risk assessment allows making choices regarding the efficiency of heat supply systems and the introduction of the latest energysaving technologies during their reconstruction. Based on the analysis of expert assessments of the emergence of hazardous situations on the pipeline part of the heat supply system, a generalized scheme for the development of a possible accident, taking into account the factors affecting the reliability of the system in general, has been developed. The value of the fuzzy probability of emergency occurrence on the pipelines of heat networks P~ = (0,178; 0,657; 0,304; 0,400) was obtained. The evaluation of the bounce tree allows determining the occurrence of an event that can lead to an unwanted violation of the heat supply system. Experimental data on the monitoring of changes in the initial indicator (characteristics of the thermal network) in the variation of the factors of influence on the developed method makes it possible to specify the justification of decisionmaking in the management of the reliability of the district heating system, taking into account the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the object
Authors and Affiliations
G. Ratushniak, M. Sviderevych
Keywords
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