M1 and M2 indicators- new proposed measures for the global accuracy of forecast intervals
Journal Title: Computational Methods in Social Sciences - Year 2014, Vol 2, Issue 1
Abstract
This is an original scientific paper that proposes the introduction in literature of two new accuracy indicators for assessing the global accuracy of the forecast intervals. Taking into account that there are not specific indicators for prediction intervals, point forecasts being associated to intervals, we consider an important step to propose those indicators whose function is only to identify the best method of constructing forecast intervals on a specific horizon. This research also proposes a new empirical method of building intervals for maximal appreciations of inflation rate made by SPF’s (Survey of Professional Forecasters) experts. This method proved to be better than those of the historical errors methods (those based on RMSE (root mean square error)) for the financial services providers on the horizon Q3:2012-Q2:2013 .
Authors and Affiliations
Mihaela SIMIONESCU
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP89638
- DOI -
- Views 160
- Downloads 0
Corporate environmental responsibility – a key determinant of corporate reputation
This paper aims to determine the trend of the relationship between corporate environmental responsibility and corporate reputation by focusing on a study of the European automotive sector. The starting point of our resea...
Modelling loans and deposits during electoral years in Romania
This paper analyzes the effect of electoral years on loans and deposits for population in Romania. Using monthly data regarding the total loans and deposits, we identify the significance of the electoral tim...
Bayesian modelling of real GDP rate in Romania
Themain objective of this study is to model and predict the real GDP rate using Bayesian approach. A Bayesian VAR (BVAR), a Bayesian linear model and switching regime Bayesian models were employed for the real GDP rate,...
Nonlinear Models for Economic Forecasting Applications: An Evolutionary Discussion
This article follows the main contributions brought to the nonlinear modeling literature. We investigate and review a series of parametric initiatives, focusing on the evolution of TAR and ARCH – GARCH model families in...
Internet of Persons and Things inspired on Brain Models and Neurophysiology
Living in the twenty first century and being part of a modern society entails being entirely acquainted with the Internet. Business success, research and study rely on intense usage of the Internet, doing most of the ac...